Like other countries in
Africa, low voters turnout remains critical factor affecting consolidation of
democracy in Nigeria. Cases of electoral apathy are not new to the democratic
institutions, especially the Independent National Electoral Commission that conducts
elections for various political offices.
It remains 188 days for
Nigerians to be at polls, 2019
elections would not be spared from voters apathy considering the political uncertainties
characterizing the country’s politics since January.
Infoprations
observes that this is likely to affect the electoral rule which says “the
candidate with the most votes wins the first round as long as he/she receives
at least twenty-five percent (25%) of the votes in two-thirds of the thirty-six
(36) Nigerian states.” If the low voters turnout recorded between 1999 and 2015
continues, Nigeria is likely to have her first run-off election in 2019.
Infoprations’ analysis
shows that Nigerians’ low interest in election is connected with lack of trust
in public institutions, reliability of police services, state of security and politicians.
On these issues, Nigeria has been having poor rankings since 2011, according to
the Global Competitiveness Index.
During election years, most Nigerians do not like going out for voting activities because of the
perceived insecurity in polling units, most especially in cities or towns where
politicians considered as battle fields. When it is time for police to come to
their rescue in case of security breach, many Nigerians do not have confidence
in police. Likewise, they do not believe that electoral officials would not
tamper with the election results.
With these observations,
Infoprations’ analysis shows that unreliability
of police services reduced voters turnout by 45.1% (covering 1999, 2003, 2007,
2011 and 2015). 86.7% and 76.5% reductions were found for public institutions
and security respectively. Despite poor rating of the public trust in
politicians, analysis suggests 66.7% growth in voters turnout.
Impact on 2019 presidential election
Analysis further reveals that in 2019,
voters turnout would increase to 47.4% against 42.40% recorded in 2015. The
current low ranking of the reliability of police services, public institutions,
security and public trust in politicians would affect turnout by 51.6%, 33.9%,
66.6% and 24.2% accordingly. Nigerian government, civil societies and other
stakeholders need to address these issues before 2019 general elections to
avoid the repeat of a fraction of the
32% of the voting age who elected President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015.
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