Osun 2018 Election: Certainties, uncertainties ahead of APC, PDP in Osun West

The All Progressives Congress and People’s Democratic Party have held their primary elections that produced Alhaji Isiaka Gboyega Oyetola and Senator Ademola Adeleke for the September 22 2018 governorship election. The primaries attracted mixed reactions of the members of the two parties, especially the co-contestants who lost, citing irregularities and manipulation of the process to favour a particular candidate.

Information has it that there were cases of vote buying and presentation of membership card to non-members to vote, with a promise of N10, 000. Before the APC’s primary, members of the party and public analysts believed that Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola would emerge as the party candidate because of his closeness with Governor Rauf Aregbesola, the incumbent and family relationship with Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, party Chieftain and National Leader.

Infoprations verified this observation. Analysis of the politicians’ popularity from June 1 to July 31 2018 indicates that Governor Aregbesola and Alhaji Oyetola were more connected than Oyetola with Senator Tinubu. It was discovered that one percent increase in people’s interest in Aregbesola increased Oyetola’s popularity by 33.5%. For the Senator Tinubu’s contribution, analysis shows that an increase in the party Chieftain decreased Oyetola’s popularity by 7.1%. This result suggests that people believe that Oyetola’s relationship with Senator Tinubu could be dangerous to the state.  

Further analysis establishes that Alhaji Oyetola and Senator Adeleke popularity moved together in positive direction and strong, signifying people’s interest in knowing the two main contenders for the September 22 election. An increase in Alhaji Oyetola’s popularity gives more than 53% increase in Senator Adeleke’s popularity, analysis reveals.

When Senator Tinubu’s popularity was analysed along with the direct primary election results, analysis shows that an increase in Senator Tinubu’s popularity led to 67.2% increase in the result of each candidate while Aregbesola only contributed 2.3%.  Infoprations believes that these effects will play major role in who wins which council and region in September 22 2018 as the parties, candidates and supporters continue promoting their programmes.

Osun West Agenda: Evolution, Revolution and Cycles

Some councils and regions would be easier for the parties and candidates to win why some would be difficult considering pre-primary political movements and agitations across the state. In 2007, Osun indigenes welcomed Governor Aregbesola despite plying his political career in Lagos State under Senator Tinubu as Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure. He was equally supported in 2014 which helped him in defeating his rival, Senator Iyiola Omisore of the People’s Democratic Party.

To the home based politicians, after the 8 years of the incumbent, it would be their turn to govern the state. For Aregbesola to win in 2014, he and his party solicited support of some members of the opposition, the PDP. The tactics paid off because the party was able to attract Former Governor and Senator, Isiaka Adeleke who the party (APC) believes he has huge supporters in the West Region that would enhance Aregbesola’s chance of winning the election.

The attraction of Senator Adeleke into the party ignites succession war.  Information indicates that Senator Adeleke expressed his interest in vying for the top seat in the state after Aregbesola’s tenure the moment he joined the ruling party, birthing Osun West Movement which later metamorphosed into Osun West Agenda and reaching personalization status early 2018 (cities and towns agitating for governorship position). To public analysts and politicians in the state, the region should be allowed to present next governor.

The agitation was high to the extent that Governor Aregbesola was always approached with ‘it is the turn of our city or town’ anytime he visited cities and towns in the West Region before the primary election. Governor Aregbesola and his party seem not to see the agitation as ideology because his response is neither positive nor negative.

But, the people of the region surprised him and the party during bye-election conducted to replace late Senator Adeleke. The ruling party lost to the opposition party, PDP. Voters in the region voted for the younger brother of Senator Isiaka Adeleke. In what could be a retaliation, APC denied the region the party’s governorship ticket.  

In line with the current political permutations and combinations in the state, Infoprations expects Osun West to be the battlefield for the APC and PDP during September 22 election. Already, analysis has revealed that Senator Ademola Adeleke is more popular in the region than Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola. The more people in the region believe in Senator Adeleke the more they have interest in Osun West Agenda, analysis suggests.

When the popularity of the two candidates was analysed along with the parties’ 2014 results in 30 local governments, Senator Adeleke has better chance (46.1%) than Alhaji Oyetola (5.1%) of winning September 22 election. However, Alhaji Oyetola’s chance will be 10.1% if current popularity of Governor Aregbesola and Senator Tinubu continues to enhance his (Alhaji Oyetola) political status.

Certainties, uncertainties ahead of APC, Osun West

•       Infoprations foresees massive votes from Osun West which could be in favour of the People’s Democratic Party. In order not to have major defeat, the All Progressives Congress is most likely to pacify aspirants who lost during the primary. They are likely to work for oppositions indirectly.
•   Aregbesola’s personality, popularity and achievements will be used to launch Oyetola’s candidacy whereas PDP will capitalise on late Senator Adeleke’s popularity, achievements in the region, and Osun West Agenda.
•      APC and Alhaji Oyetola’s Campaign Team should expect counter narratives on Aregbesola and Oyetola’s unique values most especially from the West Region.
•      Vote buying would be one of the key tactics of getting better results in the region. People are not likely to vote for APC after collecting money.
• ·      Voters in Osun West should anticipate heavy security presence. However, as far as people believe in the West Agenda ideology, APC should know that voters will not mind militarization of the electoral process.