PCI Series: Forces shaping Osun 2018's election campaigns



Before the real election campaigns, parties and candidates had crises during primaries. Some of these crises are likely to work against or favour some candidates in the September 22 election. Across all the parties, most especially the All Progressives Congress, the ruling party in the state and the People’s Democratic Party, the party being considered by the electorate as the credible opposition and likely to defeat APC’s candidate, Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola, pre-primary and primary crises nearly choked the parties.
Few hours to the commencement of the APC’s primary election held in July, some aggrieved aspirants of the party announced their withdrawal from the race, citing perfecting of the process to favour a particular candidate. For the PDP, all the aspirants contested but the outcome of the exercise received mixed reactions, especially from the second winner, Dr Akin Ogunbiyi, who felt that there were irregularities during the election. Other parties such as Action Democratic Party, the party which former Secretary to the State Government, Allahji Moshood Adeoti is using to realise his ambition after defecting from the ruling party and Social Democratic Party, the party that chose former Deputy Governor and Senator, Dr Iyiola Omisore as its candidates also have their own share of intra-party crisis.
Since the defection of the former SSG, reports have revealed that the ruling party in the state has lost her key members mostly in the West region and some parts of Central and Eastern region. In order to pacify aggrieved members and regions in the state, some of the parties have chosen their deputy aspirants from the regions they believe would enhance their chances in the September 22 election. For instance, the ruling party strategically chose Benedict Olugboyega Alabi from Ikire, to increase its chances of getting maximum votes from Osun West, the region which has been clamoring for governorship candidate since 2017.
As the campaign messages unfold, parties, candidates and their supporters are using different narratives to set up their programmes to the electorate. Our observations have shown that the four leading contenders -Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola; Senator Nurudeen Ademola Adeleke; Senator Iyiola Omisore and Alhaji Moshood Adeoti - are being framed differently particularly on social media platforms. Alhaji Oyetola is being seen as a stranger (from Lagos State) who would serve the interest of Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the National Leader of the APC. From the mass media to the new media, Senator Adeleke is not being spared from the certificate scandal and Adeleke dynasty narratives.
Throughout July and some days in August, his secondary school certificate was a subject of litigation. However, the outcome of the legal tussle said he qualifies to contest. Meanwhile, PCI has found that electorate and public affairs analysts in the state are not happy that a party could present a candidate without the minimum qualification. Beyond, certificate issue, PDP’s candidate is being portrayed as candidate for Adeleke’s dynasty.
Electorates and analysts believe that there is no difference between the dynasty and liking APC’s candidate with the APC’s National Leader, Senator Bola Tinubu. Senator Iyiola Omisore might be on his last attempt to become the governor of the state having contested against the outgoing governor in 2014. The narrative being woven around him has to do with his renewed ambition to rule the state on the new platform of Social Democratic Party (SDP).
For Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, his last minute withdrawal from APC primaries having allegedly sensed the party leaders’ move to skew the election to favour Gboyega Oyetola has seemed to draw sympathy for him from some sections of the APC. He was the State Chairman of the party before he was drafted into the outgoing Aregbesola-led executive council. It is widely believed that recent defections witnessed in the party results from the sympathy and support for Adeoti.
Indeed, electorates in Osun have many issues to understand for them to make the right decisions in the September 22 election. This is imperative because the state needs a governor that would not only be able to sustain the current infrastructural development witnessed in the two terms of the outgoing government, but that would also possess the administrative dexterity to manage the humongous debt profile of the state and fix the socio-economic challenges facing Osun in the last three years.

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