PCI Series: Vote splitting and choice of a credible candidate among 48 contenders in Osun 2018 governorship election

Of all the 48 parties on the ballot paper, only 5 could be regarded as serious contenders namely, African Democratic Congress, Action Democratic Party, All Progressives Congress, People’s Democratic Party and Social Democratic Party. In real terms, the battle will be between the APC and PDP. The two parties enjoy statewide structure in all the local government areas in the state. However, issues that emanated from the conduct of their gubernatorial primaries have continued to haunt them. Five days to the election, there are pending court cases that could have damaging effect on the candidates even if they emerge winners on September 22.

The other three contending parties- ADC, ADP and SDP- are seen as Special Purpose Vehicles for the realization of their candidates’ individual ambition. This implies that the candidates are stronger than the parties. The convenient manner in which the gubernatorial tickets of these parties were 'donated' to the candidates within a very short period of defecting to the parties suggests that the three parties were not 'electorally on ground' before the defections. The Positive Campaign Initiative analysis shows that voters are satisfied with the choice of the parties’ candidates, especially the ADC and ADP candidates for the September 22 election.

Vote spoilers and splitting patterns

Two Senatorial zones could be regarded as vote swinger zones for the election: Osun West and Osun Central. The former is generally conceded as PDP stronghold but as earlier noted its votes would be shared among PDP, ADC, ADP and APC for obvious reasons. Osun Central is the second vote swinger and current permutations put APC ahead for two reasons. The first reason is the developmental credentials of the Ogbeni administration particularly in the capital city; and second is that the APC candidate is from the zone.

Benedict Olugboyega Alabi, the APC Deputy Governorship candidate, will be the first spoiler in the West region. His choice was deliberate and strategic by the ruling party following the West Agenda agitation that led to the defection of key chieftains of the APC to other parties. He will reduce the votes of ADP and PDP.

However, he is most likely to have significant influence in Isokan, Ayedaade and Irewole than other local councils in the region. Alhaji Rasaq Ayobami Salensile will be the second spoiler for the ADP and PDP. As the new Chief of Staff, he is expected to slug it out with Alhaji Moshood Olalekan Adeoti of the ADP in Iwo, Olaoluwa and Ayedire local councils. The third spoiler in the West region is Senator Mudasiru Hussein. He was appointed recently as the new Secretary to the State Government after Alhaji Adeoti dumped the ruling party.

Credit: Positive Campaign Initiative, Nigeria

In Ejigbo local council, the ruling party expects him and the Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Dr Najeem Salaam to deliver the council and Egbedore local government to the APC.  The fourth spoiler will be former Speaker of the State Assembly, Barrister Adejare Bello, who defected recently to the ruling party. Like the appointment of Alhaji Rasaq Salensile, having the former speaker is another strategy being used by the APC to win the West region. Adejare is expected to fight for Ede North, Ede South and part of Egbedore local governments.

After the West region, Osun Central remains another region where voters will be split the most. Majority of the parties chose their deputy candidates from the region, targeting over 500,000 voters. The deputy candidates are expected to use their personalities and popularities to win their respective local councils on September 22.

Choosing a credible candidate

The quality of campaigns for the election has not been particularly impressive. The Positive Campaign Initiative analysis shows that programmes being marketed by the main political parties are not sufficient to earn the parties positive attitude from the electorates. It is largely issue-free and personality centred, which quite attracts negative disposition. It is only APC that has run some semblance of issue campaign promising to consolidate on the modest developmental achievements of the outgoing governor. Much of the campaign of the opposition parties is built around debunking the achievements of Aregbesola, promising among others to end diaspora and proxy rule in Osun and payment of full salaries and pension entitlements.

For a credible candidate to be chosen, voters need to consider educational attainment and public service experience. Our analysis reveals that the least qualification is Senior School Certificate while Doctor of Philosophy is the highest. In terms of public service experience garnered in the State, ADC, ADP and SDP candidates have richest public service experience among the major contenders. Alhaji Fatai Akinbade Akinade of the ADC has served as commissioner during the military regimes and Secretary to the State Government for PDP-led Olagunsoye Oyinlola seven and a half years tenure.  Alhaji Moshood Olalekan Adeoti has been Chairman of Iwo Local Government and State Party Chairman (AD, AC, and ACN) while Senator Iyiola Omisore contesting under the platform of SDP has served as Deputy Governor and Senator. Senator Nurudeen Ademola Adeleke of the PDP appears to be the only candidate battling with certificate scandal in the last few months.

Apart from this certificate deficit, the PDP candidate has reportedly been said to lack public service experience. PCI observation shows that this is likely to deny him maximum votes in some cities out of the 9 Federal Constituencies in the State.  

Beyond the qualifications and public service experience, age is most likely to be considered by some voters, especially the youths whose agitation for more opportunities to be trusted with political power in the country has been giving a boost by the not-too-young to run national movement. Our analysis establishes that age of the contenders ranges from 66 years (the oldest) to 33 years (the youngest). Further analysis indicates that the candidates’ age could only attract 1.1% of the voters to the polls. This is an indication that other factors would be considered by the electorate. Candidates aged 39, 45, 59, 41 and 35 are most likely to get more votes if voters prioritize the age of the candidates, analysis suggests.

Insights from the online campaign using social networking sites such as Facebook indicate that supporters and image makers of the contesting parties and candidates are appropriating positive and negative words to market and attack. Analysis reveals that positive reactions to the messages that connected with the ruling party in the State has 1.9% assurance of attracting voters to the party while the negative reactions would reduce the party’s chance by 10.4%, the only party with negative connection with the electorate. The positive and negative reactions to the Action Democratic Party, People’s Democratic Party and Social Democratic Party connected with the voters positively, indicating that the parties could profit from the both reactions.

Since voters need to align their needs with what parties and candidates are promising them, PCI modeled the parties’ programmes with the number of registered voters in the State. Analysis shows that debt defraying, education, employment generation, labour welfare, infrastructure, agriculture, poverty reduction, health, industrial development being promised by the candidates could only attract 6.8% of 1,682,495 voters.

Based on the insights, PCI analysts observe that regardless of how well the people understand the candidates and their parties’ programmes, the awareness of voting with the sincerity of purpose will go a long way to selecting the right candidate.