PCI Series:Osun 2018 on the virtual sphere: construction and deconstruction of 10 forces that will shape Oyetola’s chances on September 22

Like in the physical environment, different factors that would make or mar the chances of the main contenders in the September 22 governorship election are also being discussed on the virtual sphere. In continuation of its monitoring and evaluating parties, politicians and their supporters’ public engagement, Positive Campaign Initiative has discovered that the construction and the deconstruction of 10 forces posted and reacted to by two parties-politicians induced Facebook Users would have impact on voters during the election.

One Olu Akaraogun wrote 10 things he believed the All Progressives Congress did not tell President Muhammadu Buhari about the Osun 2018 governorship primaries during the state party’s leaders’ recent visit to Aso Rock, where President Buhari endorsed the candidacy of Alhaji Isiaka Gboyega Oyetola. Bola Ilori, another Facebook User, reacted to Akaraogun’s highlighted issues.

According to Akaraogun, the ruling party did not inform the President of the dispute that trailed  the party’s primary election; the resulting court case instituted by one of the governorship aspirants; the absence of reconciliation efforts to appease the aggrieved members who participated in the primary election and the conduct of the primaries without strict adherence to party’s guidelines as well as the absence of the Independent National Electoral Commission observers during the election. Akaraogun further notes that the ruling party did not inform President Buhari that APC Governors in the South West region are yet to congratulate Alhaji Oyetola on his victory at the primaries. He equally emphasizes that the party did not notify President Buhari that some of the governors listed as members of the party’s campaign committee in Osun are not well disposed to its flagbearer. Non-payment of workers’ salaries, loss of trust in APC by Osun workers and APC’s possibility of losing the election are also listed by Akaraogun.

Bola Ilori, who reacted to the post, adopted the pattern of listing used by Akaraogun for his message delivery, analysis reveals. PCI found that Ilori deconstructed Akaraogun’s points within the text used by Akaraogun more than placing them in a larger context of information. This indicates that Ilori only addresses each point contextually without providing advanced evidences to buttress his arguments.

Ilori notes that President Buhari is intellectually and politically sound enough to have read the report of the primaries and understood that INEC published the list of aspirants. He posits that President Buhari knows enough to be aware that congratulatory messages come in after the main election. He also asserts that PMB also understands well that party primaries are trailed by skirmishes and such are resolved through reconciliation moves and that such moves have not been lacking in Osun. To Ilori, President Buhari knows about the state party’s reconciliation efforts but that only those whose grievances have been irreconcilable chose to leave the party. Ilori says the party’s guidelines were not only duly followed but also presented to all aspirants but the mischievous ones did not acknowledge the gesture. He posits that Osun used the bailout from the federal government judiciously. He explains that the salary load was to prevent mass sacking of workers and that the Osun APC has adequate resources to ensure party’s victory. Ilori also points out that President Buhari understands that the aspirants did not score 500 votes during the July 20 party primaries. To him, politics is about having the governors on the field and not on the bed.

However, PCI discovered that Ilori did not respond to the ninth point raised by Akaraogun. Instead of addressing the issue that Osun workers do not trust the ruling party with concrete evidence, Ilori says: “You are wrong. The President knows that Osun does not owe 75% (of workers) a dime, the retaining 25% are largely inclusive of big officers some of whom even earn more than the highest paid political office holder in Osun which is the Deputy Governor (The Governor renounced his salary).”

Further analysis indicates that when Akaraogun constructed the big issues with joy, Ilori deconstructed the issues with anger. When Akaraogun constructed the big issues with sadness, Ilori deconstructed the issues with anger. When Akaraogun constructed the big issues analytically, Ilori equally did same. When Akaraogun constructed the big issues tentatively, Ilori deconstructed the issues analytically. By being analytical, the two users engaged in constructive argument on the issues. Being tentative is an indication that the user’s message should not be accepted because it is within the likelihood frame.

What is the possible impact of the conversation on the electorates?

Despite the convergence and divergence in the language use, PCI’s analysis establishes a strong link between Akaraogun’s construction and Ilori’s deconstruction of the big issues. On what could be the impact on the voters, PCI discovered that Akaraogun’s construction of the big issues would make 39.5% of the registered voters’ lose interest in the ruling party. Surprisingly, Ilori’s deconstruction of the big issues would make 22.7% loss. The categories of emotions and language patterns (anger-laden and analytical) that emerged from Ilori’s deconstruction of the issues would affect 16.2% of the voters’ decision during election, analysis suggests.

Analysis of the 10 issues addressed by the two writers using lose-the-election, non-party issues and party issues frames reveals that Akaraogun’s construction within lose-the-election frame connects with voters in Ejigbo, non-party issues connect with voters in Egbedore and Ede South while party issues resonate with electorates in Boluwaduro, Atakunmosa West, Ayedire, Atakunmosa East, Boripe, Ede North and Ayedaade councils.

Like Akaraogun’s construction within lose-the-election frame, PCI also found that the frame links with the electorates in Ejigbo from the Ilori’s deconstruction perspective. Non-party issues connect with voters in Ede South. The connection of deconstruction of the party issues by Ilori equally follows Akaraogun’s link with Boluwaduro, Atakunmosa West, Ayedire, Atakunmosa East, Boripe, Ede North and Ayedaade councils.

Would these forces actually affect the All Progressives Congress and Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola’s chances in the September 22 election?