According to the
results released by the Independent National Electoral Commission, Mr Godwin
Obaseki led his rivals by 66,310 votes in 2016 and 84,236 votes in 2020. Despite
leading during the two elections, our severity analysis of the results indicates
that people voted not because they like him in 2020. They voted because of the
need to end godfatherism in the state. As a candidate of the All Progressives
Congress in 2016, Mr Obaseki had results that had significant impact than what he
attained in 2020.
Exhibit 1: Obaseki and Oshiomole’s Popularity in 2016 and
2020 in 38 Weeks
Source: Google Trends, 2020; Infoprations Analysis, 2020
Our analysis further
suggests that Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu could have won the election if he contested
on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party. This is in line with the fact
that he had results with better impact than Mr Obaseki. Voters would have used
the crisis between Mr Obaseki and Mr Oshiomole, which established possible negative
impacts of godfatherism in the state, to elect him, our analysis suggests.
Exhibit 2: Two Candidates’ Results Severity in 2016
Source: INEC, 2016; INEC, 2020; Infoprations Analysis, 2020
Exhibit 3: Two Candidates’ Results
Severity in 2020
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