As they trooped out on June 21, 2014, registered voters
in Ekiti State are expected to be at various polling stations on July 14, 2018 to
elect the next chief executive of the state for the next four years. The 2014 exercise
gave People’s Democratic Party candidate, Ayodele Fayose the needed victory,
defeating his opponent, Kayode
Fayemi in all 16 local government areas in the state.
The
emerged results surprised political bigwigs and public analysts in the state
and throughout the country. The results were striking because the PDP’s
candidate challenged the power of incumbency associated with the previous
elections in which the sitting governors defeated opposition candidates. Unfortunately,
one year later, it appears that the election was rigged in some parts of the
state.
This year election is interesting on three bases. The
first basis is that the APC’s defeated candidate in the previous election, Dr
Kayode Fayemi has been chosen again to contest against the PDP’s candidate,
Professor Olusola Eleka. Public analysts and electorates believe that Professor
Eleka is Governor Ayodele Fayose’s political son. The second basis is that PDP
is not likely to enjoy “Federal Might” it had during 2014 election because the
power and authority at the federal level have been shifted to the APC since
2015. For the first time, the ruling and opposition parties presented
candidates of higher educational status.
These
bases have been creating written and unwritten competitions and competitors
among the politicians in the state and South-West region with some interference
from the federal level. With the 10 days to the election, candidates and
prominent members in the two parties are not relenting in selling their
programmes using different narratives.
Dr
Kayode Fayemi has declared that Governor Ayo Fayose will not be able to survive
the heat of the July 14 election. During his party’s mega rally, party’s
chieftains want Ekiti people to vote out PDP whereas Alhaji
Atiku Abubakar, Former Vice President and PDP’s chieftain informs the part to
prepare for the defeat. Outside the two parties, the prediction
has been that APC
is likely to win the election if its candidate take the right step and watch
his utterances.
Fayemi, Fayose and Eleka’s Effects
As the
campaigns deepen in physical sphere and reported by the news outlets on the
Internet and through the print platforms, the electorates in the state are
getting more information about the candidates and their programmes for the
state. Analysis of the people’s interest in the two candidates and the incumbent,
Governor Ayodele Fayose indicates different effects on the possible outcomes of
the election.
The
interest of the people in the state for Kayode Fayemi and Ayodele Fayose is 50%
each while Professor Olusola Eleka remains on 0% as of the time of doing the
analysis. Ayo Fayose has highest search volume interest than Kayode Fayemi and
Olusola Eleka. Analysis suggests that Olusola Eleka cannot survive the election
without the personality of Governor Ayo Fayose. It also reveals that people’s
interest in Former Governor, Kayode Fayemi and Governor Ayo Fayose differ.
Combined
people’s interest in Ayo Fayose and Olusola Eleka differ significantly from
Kayode Fayemi’s search interest. What percentage of
results Fayemi, Fayose and Eleka’s effect can bring? Analysis of the previous
results along with the people’s interest in the candidates and the incumbent
governor provides the answer.
The current interest
level can only give Dr Kayode Fayemi additional 1.8% votes to 120,433 recorded
in 2014 while interest in Ayodele Fayose will add 3.3% votes to 203,090
attained in 2014. Unfortunately, current interest in Olusola Eleka cannot give
any percentage to the PDP’s last results. This indicates that he has to
leverage on the incumbent’s personality and people’s interest in him (Ayodele
Fayose).
Chances in the 16 Local Councils
Kayode Fayemi have
better chances in Emure, Ido-Osi and Ijero local councils than Ayo Fayose and
Olusola Eleka’s combination. However, the All Progressive Congress and Dr
Kayode Fayemi should be ready to slug it out with Ayo Fayose, Olusola Eleka and
People’s Democratic Party in Ado Ekiti, Efon, Ekiti West, Ekiti South West,
Gbonyin, Ikere, Ikole and Ilejemeje. In these councils, the ruling party in the
state has clear chances.
Analysis further shows
that Irepodun/Ifelodun, Ise-Orun, Moba and Oye are likely to be the hotbeds for
the two parties. Analysis suggests the two parties have to be careful about the
electorates in the councils. They are likely to cast their higher votes to
other political parties during the election.
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