Nigeria’s Disinflation: How inflation trends differed from the NBS’s July rate

The Inflation Report from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 11.14 percent (year-on-year) in July 2018. According to the report, this is 0.09 percent points less than the rate recorded in June 2018 (11.23) percent and represents an eighteenth consecutive disinflation in headline inflation year on year.

“Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index.
On month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.13 percent in July 2018, down by 0.11 percent points from the rate recorded in June 2018 (1.24 percent). This represents the first-time month on month headline inflation has declined since February 2018.
The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending July 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 13.95 percent, showing 0.42 percent point from 14.37 percent recorded in June 2018.”

The report says food index rose by 12.85% in July compared to 12.98% recorded in June, representing the tenth consecutive decline in year on year food inflation since September 2017.

The bureau linked the rise in the food index to increase in prices of potatoes, yam and other tubers, vegetables, bread and cereals, fish, oils and fat and fruits. Increase in prices of bread and cereals, fish, oils and fats, milk, cheese and eggs, vegetables and fruits as well as meat were also listed by the bureau.

To confirm the bureau’s results on the increase in prices of the listed commodities, Infoprations did trending analysis of bread, fish, yam, vegetables, cereals, fruits and potatoes. Analysis shows that Nigerians had high interest in bread, fish and fruits than potatoes, yam, vegetables and cereals in July 2018. For the food consumer price index, the inflation trends predicted 21.2% increase in prices of food items measured by the country’s statistics agency.