Osun State is not different from other states in the
country with the tendency of experiencing vote buying in addition to other
forms of illegal means used by politicians and their supporters during election
period. In the next few days, electorates in the state will go to the polls and
elect another Governor who is expected to improve the fortunes of the state
through relevant policies and projects. There are 48 contenders for the
number one seat in the state.
Public analysts believe that
the contest is among the All Progressives Congress, African Democratic
Congress, Action Democratic Party, Social Democratic Party and People’s
Democratic Party. Voter inducement has characterized recent elections in the
country. From Anambra to Ekiti, parties and their candidates have continued to
point accusing at one another for inducing voters with money and other social
materials. In Ekiti State, political activists and analysts frowned at
the level in which political parties and supporters bought votes during the
July 22 governorship election.
Positive Campaign
Initiative believes that vote buying cannot be exonerated from the electoral
malpractices that will likely characterize the September 22 election in Osun.
The act has kept becoming widespread and sophisticated. The electoral process
keeps getting highly monetized. Already, 67 percent of registered voters
in the state have received their Permanent Voters Card according to the
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Available information
indicates that a total of 1,152,751 PVCs have been collected out of the
1,668,524 received in the state, leaving a balance of 515,773. This shows
that political parties and their supporters have 1,668,524 market addressable
voters for vote buying.
Total addressable market and who gets targeted for vote buying?
Going by what occurred in Ekiti
State and observation that vote buyers paid N5, 000 during the state
gubernatorial election; PCI forecasts that the total cost of buying the
registered voters would be N8, 342,620,000. Using Minimum Addressable Voters
approach based on the the prediction of 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45% and 50% of
voter turnout, PCI found striking results. Analysis shows that 25% of voter
turnout will lead to 417,131 voters which will cost buyers N2, 085,655,000. For
30% and 35%, buyers are expected to spend N2, 502,785,000 and N2, 919,915,000
respectively. If 40% of the registered voters go to the polls on September 22,
politicians and their supporters will spend N3, 337,050,000. Analysis further
establishes that if 45% and 50% of voters are available during the election,
the cost of buying votes will be N3, 754,180,000 and N4, 171,310,000
accordingly.
Having understood the cost of
vote buying using Ekiti State as a case and the number of Minimum Addressable
Voters, PCI does not expect a clear distinction between less and highly
educated voters as targets for vote buying. Buyers are also expected not to
perceive whether a particular voter is poor before he or she is approached to
exchange vote for money. Despite high literacy rate in the state, considering
the 2010 ratings, being literate would not be a factor for rejecting vote
buyers during September 22 election because the perception among the electorate
is that politicians would be spending from what they have gathered from the
public treasury over the years.
However, poor voters are more
likely to sell their votes even when the politicians and supporters will not
approach them. PCI’s analysts believe that one of the factors that would make
the economically vulnerable voters exchange their votes for money is the
competitiveness of the election. Having 48 candidates for the race has shown
that the election will be keenly contested. Vulnerable voters in terms of
education and adequate economic means for survival will be more than willing to
accept monetary inducement at the expense of quality programmes. To them, the
ability of a contender to pay overrides better programmes or a promise for a
sustained future.
What funds utilized for vote buying can do
As voters and politicians meet
at the polls, PCI wants the buyers and sellers to know that the state is
expected to pay its remaining unpaid debt of N143.6 billion latest by the year
2019 in addition to N11.4 billion Sukuk interest-free facility. When the debt was
N162.5 billion, each indigene is expected to bear N2, 031.25 per annum for a
period of 20years to repay the debt.
Apart from this, the state
needs more projects that will ensure quality sustainable life for everyone.
Buying and selling votes during September 22 election will have significant
impact on defraying the debt and initiating or completing developmental
projects in the state because politicians will make every effort to recoup
their spent funds within few months of getting to power. Before the election,
PCI expects the Independent National Electoral Commission to approach the vote
buying issue with the appropriate strategies and instruments of the law. The
duo of vote buyers and sellers should be punished to serve as effective
deterrent.
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