Militancy Risk and the Nigerian Economy in 2020


Like other social movement groups in the country, the militant groups in the Niger Delta region evolved on the need for the Federal Government of Nigeria to address environmental issues occasioned by the activities of the oil and gas companies, especially the oil spillage and gas flaring. The militancy has been an issue before the emergence of the President Muhammadu Buhari administration. Like him, successive governments promised to resolve the issues being raised by the people in the region regarding their environment.
However, efforts of the present administration to address the identified issues after 2015 general elections led to the significant fall in the country’s revenue source –crude oil and compounded the country’s recent economic recession between 2016 and 2017.  Having realised the severity of the incessant oil pipeline destruction and kidnapping of workers, Federal Government took certain measures and reaffirmed its commitment to the welfare of the militants who have been on the government’s payroll since 2007.
Some militants and communities in the region have genuine cases against the government and oil producing companies. Many communities in the region have been destroyed by the oil spillage. Farmers are finding it difficult to cultivate lands for farming purposes and having bumper harvests. This has been fronted on the social marginalization stand. Stakeholders want government and oil companies in the area to ensure social justice by providing social amenities and support that would reduce the environmental impacts of oil spillage and gas flaring on their sources of livelihood and wellbeing.

On social support side, Niger Delta region is one of the semi-autonomous regions in Nigeria with the highest unemployment rate.  This has been another factor driving militancy in the region. When this is not addressed, there is propensity to have militants on the creek in the next two years. Paying the militants monthly stipend would not prevent them from reestablishing themselves on the creeks and wrecking companies’ facilities.
As the country prepares for next year general elections, there is tendency of capitalising on the level of unemployment by the politicians towards attaining their political desired.  When they failed to achieve their targets, country is most likely to witness the resurgence of the militant activities in first and second quarters in 2019.  The effects would affect businesses in the region and likely to return the country to decline Gross Domestic Product growth in 2019 and 2020, which will have significant influence on the full attainment of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan.
The impacts of the return of militancy will be enormous on the businesses in the region and the country as a whole. Companies are most likely to lose their employees to kidnappers and pay huge ransom to secure their release. Business operations would be halted for several months. These will not stop as long as government at the federal failed to take proactive measures towards addressing the perennial socio-economic issues in the region. The effect will be severed on the country’s revenue growth and a strategic clog for the country in attaining the International Monetary Funds’ predicted 3.7% Gross Domestic Product for 2019.

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