When President
Muhammadu Buhari defeated former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 after three
consecutive contests, it was described as
a lesson in political folklore and patience for many Nigerians. President
Buhari won the election by 15.4 million votes after forming alliance with the
key political parties outside his region. His previous attempts were successful
in the northern region than other regions, especially in the South-South and
South-East regions.
Apart from the alliance
that helped President Buhari in 2015, many Nigerians believed he had integrity and
capable of rescuing the country from the socio-economic challenges. They
want him to apologise, assert, assess, articulate and attack the challenges.
Before the 2015 elections, rising unemployment and insecurity were the key
problems Nigerians want him and former President Goodluck Jonathan to address.
Analysis reveals that the two issues were not important to Nigerians in 2011.
In 2011, analysis
indicates that unemployment trended in a negative direction with the former President
Goodluck Jonathan by 5.6%. The trending was positive for President Buhari
because he remained contender then. His positive movement shows that Nigerians
want him to resolve the challenge. Surprisingly, in 2015, the trend pattern of
the unemployment changed from negative to positive for the former President
Jonathan but it took negative pattern towards President Buhari during the year,
indicating that citizens want him to find lasting solutions to the issue.
Despite 45.3%
popularity rate among Nigerians in 2011, insecurity connected with the former
President and President Buhari. Insecurity associated with the former President
by 27.9% while President Buhari’s connection with the problem was 29.2%. It
quite surprising that President Buahri had high percent despite that he was not
the President during the year. President Buhari retained his negative movement
with the insecurity by 21.7% in 2015 when he assumed office as the President while
the analysis reveals 5.1% positive connection for the former President
Jonathan.
The negativity of the
President Buhari could be linked with the fact that he promised
Nigerians during election campaigns that he would crush the terrorist group
Boko Haram within months if elected. Further analysis shows that the
trending of unemployment at 50% in the future will not have significant
negative influence on the President’s chance of winning the next election.
However, trending between 75% and 100% could be dangerous for the president’s popularity and by extension winning the election, analysis suggests. The same effect was found for the
insecurity. If the trending of the issue reaches 100%, it would be hazardous
for the president’s popularity by 131.2%.
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